Widely considered the most successful American sports bettor ever, Walters shares his betting system in his new book “Gambler: Secrets from a Life at Risk” with Armen Keteyian. He spends two chapters discussing his system — here are some key learnings.
Billy Walters is widely considered the most successful American sports bettor of all time. The original Kentucky sports betting gambler has made hundreds of millions of dollars by beating sportsbooks over the past few decades — and has now decided to share his betting system with the world.
In Walters’ new book “Gambler: Secrets from a Life at Risk” with Armen Keteyian, he dedicates two chapters to his betting system, which he titles Master Class and Advanced Master Class. Here are some key learnings from both chapters that should help most bettors improve.
Master Class
Master Class is aimed more at beginners, but there are still many takeaways that bettors need to be reminding themselves of at all times. Walters lists three main areas where bettors need to be astute in order to be successful: Handicapping, betting strategy, and money management.
Handicapping
Walters’ handicapping system revolves around power ratings (more on that below) but before getting into the details, he outlines the basics that everyone must understand:
- Home field advantage. This is generally assumed to be worth three points. But from 1974-2022, it’s actually only worth closer to 2.5 points. And over the last four years, it’s worth less than one point.
- Prevent. Which teams and coaches let up or sit starters with a big lead? Understanding these tendencies is crucial.
- Injuries. Knowing which players will or won’t play is obviously crucial, but understanding how much each player is worth to the line is just as important (more on this below).
- Game factors. There are also a ton of game factors that Walters evaluates each week. Divisional play, teams coming off of Thursday Night Football, consecutive weeks on the road, weather, and teams changing time zones are just a few of these factors.
Betting strategy
The single most important factor outlined by Walters when it comes to building a successful betting strategy is to get the best odds on every bet you make. How do you do that? By having as many accounts as you can with different sportsbooks or betting sites.
Here are a few other things to keep in mind
- Monitor the odds at market-leading sportsbooks (Walters specifically names Circa, MGM, Caesars, and Pinnacle). The lines at these sportsbooks show you which way the odds are moving.
- As a rule of thumb, bet favorites early and dogs late.
- Some key numbers in betting matter more than others, and you need to understand the value of half points.
- Don’t chase losses by betting on games where you don’t have an edge.
Money management
Knowing how to manage your bankroll is almost as important as knowing how to handicap games and developing your betting strategy. First, you need to set your bankroll by deciding how much you want to risk. Walters says to “start with the assumption that you’ll lose it all.” Also, remember that you cannot bet without a bankroll. Protecting it should be your top priority.
Once you have your bankroll, you’ll want to limit your maximum wager on any single event to three percent of your total bankroll. Walters also recommends betting in half units between 0.5 and three units. The more value you have in a bet, the more units you put toward it (with the maximum being three units).